Trading on cryptocurrency platforms is available around the clock, every day of the year. This sets them apart from more conventional exchanges, which are typically closed on weekends and only open for part of the day.
Nevertheless, since 2021, the percentage of Bitcoin trading volumes that occur on weekends has been consistently decreasing. This trend has only accelerated since January 2024, when spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. Kaiko, an analytics firm, found that trading cryptocurrencies in exchange-traded funds accelerates the declining trend in the gap between weekday and weekend trading volumes. Bloomberg cites her report.
In 2024, the volume of Bitcoin transactions over the weekend hit a 12-year low of 16%. reported by Kaiko, was lower than the 2019 peak of 28%.
Weekday volumes started to grow in October 2023. Analysts have found, using weekly data, that trading is getting increasingly concentrated on weekdays and during active trading hours on traditional U.S. financial exchanges.
You may have noticed that there is a surge in activity between 15:00 and 16:00 Moscow time (22:00-23:00 New York time), which coincides with when the ETF’s net asset value (NAV) is recalculated. Investors in the fund reevaluate their holdings at these times in relation to a benchmark that determines the ETF’s price.
The benchmark updates its index price for one Bitcoin daily between 15:00 and 16:00 New York time in US dollars. Bitstamp, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and LMAX Digital are among the exchanges whose combined trading data is used to determine it. Each fund determines its NAV after the market closes at 4:00 p.m.
The closure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in 2023, which had previously offered 24-hour services to cryptocurrency companies, has also contributed to the concentration of liquidity and trading volumes in relation to the opening hours of American markets.
This is due to the fact that banking institutions’ round-the-clock payment networks are no longer accessible to market makers who trade cryptocurrencies in real time.
Market participants and liquidity
The Bitcoin trading market’s liquidity indicators have improved, according to Kaiko. The US market’s capacity to handle massive orders has been enhanced by the introduction of spot BTC ETFs. All US-based exchanges had an increase in the average daily BTC market depth of 1% compared to data from 2023. This depth measures the amount of liquidity in orders within a 1% distance of the price, either way.
Companies that trade the main cryptocurrency daily to support the ETF shares—so-called authorized participants of ETF issuers—exerted this influence. Jane Street, JP Morgan, and DRW all offer similar services for US ETFs.
With the elimination of price discrepancies between ETF shares and Bitcoin prices, these firms helped improve liquidity. According to Kaiko, the institutionally focused exchange LMAX showed the most significant percentage growth in the first quarter of the year, with an average daily BTC market depth of 1% on US exchanges.
Overall, U.S. exchange liquidity has increased from 35% a year ago to 45% since ETF adoption.
The spot market for Bitcoin has been positively affected by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the whole, but new dangers may arise as a result of the growing concentration of trading volume and liquidity. Kaiko analysts warn that retail traders could lose out if market volatility increases outside of US market hours due to this concentration.