Expert predictions with a positive outlook
Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” and a crypto optimist, followed Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood in allowing the Bitcoin rate to reach $2.3 million. I, the writer-investor, purchased ten additional coins on the eve of the halving. Kiyosaki has long been an outspoken opponent of fiat currencies like the US dollar, arguing that alternatives like Bitcoin and gold should be seriously considered.
Optimism is shared by seasoned trader Peter Brandt, who predicts an increase in the exchange rate based on fundamental and technical analysis. According to the investor, Bitcoin will be able to reach $200,000 by September 2025 with the help of halving. According to Brandt’s technical analysis, the current bullish cycle will come to an end in August or September 2025. In light of technical considerations, the expert revised up the forecast rate from $120,000 to $200,000.
The analysts from Bernstein, a brokerage firm, gave a less enthusiastic but still positive review. Just before the halving, they were able to raise the end-of-year Bitcoin target price from $80,000 to $90,000.
But there are some pessimists among the experts.
Expert predictions kept under wraps
There will be a market crash following the halving, according to Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX. Nevertheless, his outlook for the medium-term is still positive – he expects growth to persist. But he thinks things should turn around the other way, and that we should expect to see the first market correction after the halving, because everyone else is so pessimistic.
Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, has acknowledged that halving might not significantly affect Bitcoin’s price. Given that the asset had already achieved record growth prior to the occurrence.
The gloomy prognoses of authorities
Some forecasts are more gloomy. According to the experts at TheMinerMag, just 20% of mining companies will see no change in profit after the halving, while the remaining 80% will see a significant decline.
On top of that, everyone who uses old technology is supposed to feel the pinch of the cut. The price of mining one bitcoin with the Antminer S19 XP (the model debuted in 2022) will go up to $80,000, according to CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju. If this is the case, then the only way for coin holders to afford the most recent models is for their value to skyrocket.
Some businesses in the industry have already taken steps to get ready for the halving; for instance, Fitfarms optimistically deployed 5,000 new units of Bitcoin mining hardware.
Halvings: A Concise Overview
The price of the flagship cryptocurrency has been greatly boosted by each of the three previous halvings. At its initial halving in November 2012, one Bitcoin was worth $12.30. Just over a year and a half later, in December 2013, the price hit $1,000 (before reversing course and staying at $200 for a while).
Bitcoin price: $650 as of second halving on July 9, 2016. Additionally, the price peaked in December 2017 at $19,000.
The price of Bitcoin jumped from $8,700 to $60,000 in less than a year after the third halving on May 11, 2020 (the mark was broken in March and April 2021).
Statistical evaluation
The immediate future of the situation in 2024 most assuredly does not portend expansion. By the 20th of April, at the latest. The decline in Bitcoin’s value is ongoing. As proof, consider the price’s decline below $60,000 during the previous week. Presently, the price is higher than the 50-day moving average. Sub-50 is the current level of the RSI indicator. After the halving, it is likely that the price will rise above $73,794, but it will be premature to declare a trend change until then. However, sales might persist if the $59,600 support level fails to hold.
In summary
The first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, stands to gain historically from the halving that will take place in 2024, according to many of the aforementioned experts. Simultaneously, a long-term growth scenario is feasible if the benefit of the reduced reward does not follow immediately. Both the asset’s historical data (dynamics during previous halvings) and the asset’s reduced supply lend credence to this. But you should wait until the trend breaks out of its respective support and resistance levels before making any judgments.
You should not rely on any of the information or content presented here as personalized investment advice. Editors’ views might differ from those of writers, analytical portals, and subject-matter experts.