In the seven days preceding halving, Bitcoin’s value dropped by around 4%. In the last week, we did not reach the all-time high, but we did fall below $60,000 on multiple occasions.
I don’t feel any joy; why is that? Two things are at play here.
The first is that the halving process is still in its infancy. Despite the fact that April 17 was considered a possible date by some experts. The halving process is independent of time and is instead dependent on the height of the blockchain, so everything is crystal clear here. Put simply, it happens once every 210,000 blocks. The halving will take place in 2024 at a height of 840,000 blocks.
Second, there are the conflicts between Israel and Iran.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar has hit a one-year low due to rising US inflation and tensions in the Middle East.
The fact that not everyone sees halving—that is, cutting the reward to miners for a block in half—as a bullish signal is interesting. According to 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen, previous growth cycles were caused by macroeconomic factors rather than a decrease in the reward for mining a block.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is still in the midst of its correction. For the first time since March 5, 2024, the price has dropped below $60,000 over the past seven days, and the 50-day moving average (in orange) is above. Even though the RSI indicator has started to rise, it is still below 50, which means that the trend is not changing either. If you can break through the $73,794 resistance level, your evaluation of the situation will shift. However, sales will persist unless the $59,600 support level is broken.
A thirteen point decline was noted in the fear and greed index when compared to last week. Right now, it’s worth 66. This shows that greed is prevalent, albeit not to an extreme degree.
Ethereum
The decline in airwaves over the past week was slightly less than 8%. With a decline to $3,000, the market cap of the cryptocurrency ranked second in the world fell. Consistent with the weeklong pessimism, five trading sessions ended in losses.
This information is derived from tradingview.com.
Big players’ actions (whales) were the primary cause of the negative dynamics over the past week. A large portion of their ETH was sold off. According to analysts from the Spot On Chain platform, one of the whales who continued to participate in the Ethereum ICO, for instance, sold 2,000 tokens for 6 million USDC.
Twenty thousand people are now active as validators on the Ethereum network. The last time this occurred was in September 2023. Indicator values started rising in March 2024. The concept of re-staking sheds light on the matter; it enables one to stake cryptocurrency on multiple protocols simultaneously, not just Ethereum.
The concept of Ethereum spot ETFs has been refined. The authorities in Hong Kong are taking a more aggressive stance, in contrast to the United States, where people remain somewhat skeptical of the May decisions. Three products from Bosera Asset Management, China Asset Management, and Harvest Global were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) this past week.
From a technical analysis perspective, it is evident that the correction for ether is ongoing. The price dropped below $3,059, which was the previous support level and the low from March 2024. The price is significantly below the 50-day moving average (shown in orange), and the relative strength index (RSI) is below 50 and keeps falling, indicating that bears have the upper hand over bulls according to the indicators. If the price manages to break through the $3,280.4 resistance level, it will likely signal a change in trend. At $2,845, the level of last week’s low, we have support.
Dogecoin
Over the course of the week ending April 19, Dogecoin, the most valuable memcoin by market cap, experienced a decline of nearly 13%. Curiously, the entire negative effect happened on a single day – Saturday, April 13, when the decrease was 12.46 percent. Changes on different days could only cancel each other out.
This information is derived from tradingview.com.
A drop in internet use explains the negative dynamics. The number of daily active addresses fell below 42,000, according to the analytical platform Santiment. Since October 2023, this has never occurred before.
Since early 2024, Dogecoin has outperformed Bitcoin, making it one of the rare altcoins in the top 50 by market cap. The rate of DOGE tokens rose 69% between January and April, whereas the rate of BTC rose just 52%.
Dogecoin still has many good points, even with the correction. A statement from Bitmain, a Chinese company that makes mining equipment, is one of them. A new Antminer L9, compatible with Litecoin, Bells, and Dogecoin, is set to be released in May.
It is said that Elon Musk allegedly carried out a number of large transactions involving this. Two transactions totaling approximately $45 million involving 150 million DOGE tokens were recorded within a few days. The enigmatic tweet that Musk sent out the day prior to these transactions sparked suspicions.
As far as technical analysis is concerned, Dogecoin is witnessing near-term. The long-term trend is positive, but bears are outnumbering bulls. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, shown in orange and blue, are below the current price. Levels of $0.12285 serve as support, while levels of $0.16672 act as resistance.